Experts puzzle over why Bayesian yacht sank. Was it a 'black swan event'?

Portrait of Cybele Mayes-Osterman

The Bayesian set off on a leisurely cruise around Italy's southern coast on a sunny day in late July.

The luxurious super yacht − which boasted one of the largest masts in the world and carried a crew of business moguls, including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his family and a chair of Morgan Stanley − set sail from the Amalfi Coast, bound for Sicily.

Less than a month later, the ship had sunk 160 feet under the water , leaving its cook dead and six of its passengers, including at least two Americans, missing and prompting a massive search that has drawn international attention.

Now, experts are trying to piece together why in the early hours Monday the Bayesian was quickly pulled under the waves amid a storm that saw at least one tornado spin up over the water.

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A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say

The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told USA TODAY.

The Bayesian was well-built: A 2008 product of Italian ship maker Perini, it was constructed in accordance with international maritime standards and commercially certified by the U.K.'s Maritime and Coastguard Agency, according to Schanck.

The bout of bad weather that swept the area when the ship went down was also out of the ordinary in the northern Mediterranean, "which isn't renowned for prolonged, significant stormy weather," he said.

"The fact that those two elements have then resulted in the foundering of a super yacht is pretty extraordinary," Schanck said. "These things don't happen every day."

After the ship sank just before 5 a.m. local time, 15 people, including a 1-year-old, were pulled from the water. Some were rescued from a life raft by the crew of a ship docked nearby.

Ricardo Thomas, the ship's cook and a native of Antigua, was found dead, according to authorities.

As of Tuesday, six people were missing, including Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter. Several missing passengers were involved in Lynch's trial on fraud charges, including Jonathan Bloomer, a Morgan Stanley chair who served as his character witness, and one of Lynch's attorneys. Lynch, accused of fraud after he sold his company to electronics giant Hewlett-Packard, was acquitted of all charges weeks ago.

Who is Mike Lynch? UK entrepreneur among those missing after superyacht sinks off Sicily

Tornado formed over unusually hot water

Storms in the area that night may have whipped up a water spout, a tornado over the water , according to local meteorologists.

It was likely triggered by the water's unusual warmth, said Rick Shema, a certified consulting meteorologist who served in the Navy.

"The water spout was an uncommon occurrence," he said. "But again, these things happen, especially in warmer water."

At 83.7 degrees, water in the area was more than 3 degrees hotter than average on the day the Bayesian sank, likely the result of climate change, Shema said.

"Hurricanes can form at 80 degrees. This was almost four degrees higher than that," he said.

The water spout may have spun up when cooler air dropped from mountainous places nearby onto the hot water, he said. "A water spout is a vortex, basically like a tornado, spinning real fast, sucking up water and moisture as the column rises," he said.

Although water spouts only reach around 120 mph, as compared with tornadoes on land, which can reach up to 300 mph, "you don't need 200 mph to sink a ship," he said.

"Even an average tornado, 120 miles an hour, that's a lot of wind," he said, "which would heel the boat over for sure."

Water spouts spring up suddenly, Shema said. Before they strike, winds can be slow, but "once the water spout comes over, bam, it's on," he said.

Before sunrise, the ship's crew may not have seen the water spout coming. "The visibility was probably a big factor," he said.

With the windows of the yacht opened, as they likely were in the hot weather, the water spout could have triggered water that flooded through the portholes, Shema said, causing the ship to sink.

Tragedy strikes: Scramble to find survivors after Bayesian yacht sinks off Sicily coast

Search continues, but shift to recovery phase approaches

Italian authorities said the Bayesian was probably at anchor when the storm struck, meaning it couldn't maneuver and ride the waves, according to Mitchell Stoller, a captain and maritime expert witness. Other ships in the area that turned on their engines rode out the storm, he said.

"When you're at anchor and you see weather, you start your engine and you put the wind on the bow. You don't let it get on the side," he said.

Schanck said another key question concerns the position of the keel, a heavy weight underneath the boat that acts as a counterbalance to keep it upright, when the ship sank. When lifted, "that's going to affect the stability of the vessel, because, obviously, you've now raised the center of gravity of that vessel," he said.

The Bayesian was floating over 160 feet of water at the time, deep enough that the keel would likely be deployed. But the fact that "the vessel heeled over so heavily makes me question that," Schanck said.

The cause of the disaster may not be known until the ship can be examined in more detail, experts say. Prosecutors in a nearby town have already opened an investigation.

Schanck said investigators will have plenty to work with once the operation moves into a recovery phase.

"The vessel is intact and in good condition on the seabed," he said. "There's a lot of eyewitness accounts from other vessels in the area and the shore."

As the search entered its second day on Tuesday, the rescue effort may shift in that direction soon. "I suspect, later on, today or tomorrow, we'll probably see some mention of a recovery operation being stated," Schanck said.

The decision to would depend on whether rescuers find signs of life in the ship and air pockets or survivable spaces, Schanck said. At this point, survivors on the water's surface looks unlikely. "My professional opinion is that the casualties will be located within the vessel," he said.

"There is a risk versus benefit in all maritime search and rescue incidents," he said. "Where we start transitioning to a recovery phase, that line shifts."

Contributing: Reuters

Cybele Mayes-Osterman is a breaking news reporter for USA Today. Reach her on email at [email protected]. Follow her on X @CybeleMO.

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Lynch Yacht Sinking Off Sicily Proves as Baffling as It Is Tragic

As bodies were recovered, the authorities and experts wondered how a $40 million, stable and secure vessel could have sunk so quickly.

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A diver in an orange jumpsuit suit and crews in gray shirts and red trousers hoist remains in a blue body bag onto a boat, as others in reflector uniforms stand nearby.

By Emma Bubola and Michael J. de la Merced

Emma Bubola reported from Porticello, Italy, and Michael J. de la Merced from London.

Two months after being cleared in a bruising legal battle over fraud charges, the British tech mogul Mike Lynch celebrated his freedom with a cruise. He invited his family, friends and part of his legal team on board his luxury sailing yacht, a majestic 180-foot vessel named Bayesian after the mathematical theorem around which he had built his empire.

On Sunday night, after a tour of the Gulf of Naples, including Capri, and volcanic islands in the Eolian archipelago, the boat anchored half a mile off the Sicilian coast in Porticello, Italy. It chose a stretch of water favored by the Phoenicians thousands of years ago for its protection from the mistral wind and, in more recent times, by the yachts of tech billionaires. The boat was lit “like a Christmas tree,” local residents said, standing out against the full moon.

But about 4 a.m., calamity unfolded. A violent and fast storm hit the area with some of the strongest winds locals said they had ever felt. Fabio Cefalù, a fisherman, said he saw a flare pierce the darkness shortly after 4.

Minutes later, the yacht was underwater. Only dozens of cushions from the boat’s deck and a gigantic radar from its mast floated on the surface of the sea, fishermen said.

In all, 22 people were on board, 15 of whom were rescued. Six bodies — five passengers and the ship’s cook — had been recovered by Thursday afternoon, including that of Mr. Lynch, an Italian government official said, adding that the search was continuing for his daughter.

It was a tragic and mystifying turn of events for Mr. Lynch, 59, who had spent years seeking to clear his name and was finally inaugurating a new chapter in his life. Experts wondered how a $40 million yacht, so robust and stable could have been sunk by a storm near a port within minutes.

“It drives me insane,” said Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, which in 2022 bought the company, Perini, that made the Bayesian. “Following all the proper procedures, that boat is unsinkable.”

The aura of misfortune only deepened when it emerged that Stephen Chamberlain, 52, a former vice president of finance for Mr. Lynch’s former company and a co-defendant in the fraud case, was killed two days earlier, when he was hit by a car while jogging near his house in England.

Since June, the two men had been in a jubilant mood. A jury in San Francisco had acquitted both on fraud charges that could have sent them to prison for two decades. There were hugs and tears, and they and their legal teams went for a celebratory dinner party at a restaurant in the city, said Gary S. Lincenberg, a lawyer for Mr. Chamberlain.

The sea excursion was meant as a thank-you by Mr. Lynch to those who had helped him in his legal travails. Among the guests was Christopher J. Morvillo, 59, a scion of a prominent New York family of lawyers who had represented Mr. Lynch for 12 years. He and his wife, Neda, 57, were among the missing.

So, too, was Jonathan Bloomer, 70, a veteran British insurance executive who chaired Morgan Stanley International and the insurer Hiscox.

The body of the ship’s cook, Recaldo Thomas, was recovered. All the other crew members survived. Among them was Leo Eppel, 19, of South Africa, who was on his first yacht voyage working as a deck steward, said a friend, who asked not to be identified.

Since the sinking, the recovery effort and investigation have turned the tiny port town of Porticello, a quiet enclave where older men sit bare-chested on balconies, into what feels like the set of a movie.

Helicopters have flown overhead. Ambulances have sped by with the sirens blaring. The Coast Guard has patrolled the waters off shore, within sight of a cordoned-off dock that had been turned into an emergency headquarters.

On Wednesday afternoon, a church bell tolled after the first body bag was loaded into an ambulance, a crowd watching in silence.

The survivors were sheltering in a sprawling resort near Porticello, with a view of the shipwreck spot, and had so far declined to comment.

Attilio Di Diodato, director of the Italian Air Force’s Center for Aerospace Meteorology and Climatology, said that the yacht had most likely been hit by a fierce “down burst” — when air generated within a thunderstorm descends rapidly — or by a waterspout , similar to a tornado over water.

He added that his agency had put out rough-sea warnings the previous evening, alerting sailors about storms and strong winds. Locals said the winds “felt like an earthquake.”

Mr. Costantino, the boat executive, said the yacht had been specifically designed for having a tall mast — the second-tallest aluminum mast in the world. He said the Bayesian was an extremely safe and secure boat that could list even to 75 degrees without capsizing.

But he said that if some of the hatches on the side and in the stern, or some of the deck doors, had been open, the boat could have taken on water and sunk. Standard procedure in such storms, he said, is to switch on the engine, lift the anchor and turn the boat into the wind, lowering the keel for extra stability, closing doors and gathering the guests in the main hall inside the deck.

super yachts that have sunk

12 guests occupied the yacht’s six cabins. There were also 10 crew members.

Open hatches, doors and cabin windows could have let in water during a storm, according to the manufacturer.

super yachts that have sunk

Open hatches, doors and

cabin windows could

have let in water

during a storm,

according to the

manufacturer.

Source: Superyacht Times, YachtCharterFleet, MarineTraffic

By Veronica Penney

The New York Times attempted to reach the captain, James Cutfield, who had survived, for comment through social media, his brother and the management company of the yacht (which did not hire the crew), but did not make contact.

So far none of the surviving crew members have made a public statement about what happened that night.

Fabio Genco, the director of Palermo’s emergency services, who treated some of the survivors, said that the victims had recounted feeling as if the boat was being lifted, then suddenly dropped, with objects from the cabins falling on them.

The Italian Coast Guard said it had deployed a remotely operated vehicle that can prowl underwater for up to seven hours at a depth of more than 980 feet and record videos and images that they hoped would help them reconstruct the dynamics of the sinking. Such devices were used during the search and rescue operations of the Titan vessel that is believed to have imploded last summer near the wreckage of the Titanic.

After rescuers broke inside the yacht, they struggled to navigate the ropes and many pieces of furniture cluttering the vessel, said Luca Cari, a spokesman for Italy’s national firefighter corps.

Finally, as of Thursday morning, they had managed to retrieve all but one of the missing bodies, and hopes of finding the missing person alive were thin. “Can a human being be underwater for two days?” Mr. Cari asked.

What was certain was that Mr. Lynch’s death was yet another cruel twist of fate for a man who had spent years seeking to clear his name.

He earned a fortune in technology and was nicknamed Britain’s Bill Gates. But for more than a decade, he had been treated as anything but a respected tech leader.

He was accused by Hewlett-Packard, the American technological pioneer that had bought his software company, Autonomy, for $11 billion, of misleading it about his company’s worth. (Hewlett-Packard wrote down the value of the transaction by about $8.8 billion, and critics called it one of the worst deals of all time .) He had been increasingly shunned by the British establishment that he sought to break into after growing up working-class outside London.

He was extradited to San Francisco to face criminal charges, and confined to house arrest and 24-hour surveillance on his dime. In a townhouse in the Pacific Heights neighborhood — with security people he jokingly told associates were his “roommates” — he spent his mornings talking with researchers whom he funded personally on new applications for artificial intelligence. Afterward, he devoted hours to discussing legal strategy with his team.

Despite his persistent claims of innocence, even those close to Mr. Lynch had believed his odds of victory were slim. Autonomy’s chief financial officer, Sushovan Hussain, was convicted in 2018 of similar fraud charges and spent five years in prison.

During Mr. Lynch’s house arrest, his brother and mother died. His wife, Angela Bacares, frequently flew over from England, and she became a constant presence in the San Francisco courtroom during the trial.

After he was finally acquitted, Mr. Lynch had his eye on the future. “I am looking forward to returning to the U.K. and getting back to what I love most: my family and innovating in my field,” he said.

Elisabetta Povoledo contributed reporting from Pallanza, Italy.

Emma Bubola is a Times reporter based in Rome. More about Emma Bubola

Michael J. de la Merced has covered global business and finance news for The Times since 2006. More about Michael J. de la Merced

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Everything We Know About the Final Moments of the Passengers Who Died in the Sicily Yacht Tragedy

Five of the seven victims had been "searching for air pockets" as the luxury yacht sank on Aug. 19, authorities said

super yachts that have sunk

PERINI NAVI PRESS OFFICE/HANDOUT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

The luxury yacht Bayesian that sank off the coast of Sicily on Monday, Aug. 19, resulted in the deaths of six passengers and one crew member.

Less than a week later, on Saturday, Aug. 24, Ambrogio Cartosio, the Chief Prosecutor of Termini Imerese, announced that Italian authorities were launching a manslaughter investigation into the sinking , and he identified all of the victims.

The seven victims who died in the tragic sinking were yacht chef Recaldo Thomas; British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch and his daughter, Hannah Lynch; Christopher Morvillo and his wife, Neda ; and Morgan Stanley International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, Judy .

As authorities attempt to answer questions about what exactly led to the sinking of the 183-foot British-flagged vessel — which went down during a "violent storm,” the Italian Coast Guard previously told PEOPLE in a statement — here is what we currently know about the victims’ final moments.

FAMILY HANDOUT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

During the Aug. 24 press conference, Girolamo Bentivoglio Fiandra, head of the Palermo Fire Brigade, revealed that as the Bayesian began going down early Monday morning, “It was quite clear that people were trying to hide in the cabins.”

“In the left-hand side, we found the first 5 bodies in the left-hand side cabins, and the final body on the right-hand side,” Fiandra said. “We found them on the highest part of the ship, which was closer to the surface. The vessel had three cabins on each side.”

The five victims, who "took refuge” on the luxury yacht’s left side, had been "searching for air pockets" in a final attempt at survival," he added.

HANDOUT/Vigili del Fuoco/AFP via Getty

As for why the victims were in the cabins in the first place, Giovanni Costantino — who leads The Italian Sea Group, the company that now owns Perini Navi, which built the Bayesian back in 2008 — told CNN it was due to a “very long sum of errors."

"Everything that has been done reveals a very long sum of errors,” he said in his interview, translated from Italian. “The people should not have been in the cabins, the boat should not have been at anchor. And then why didn't the crew know about the incoming disturbance?”

Never miss a story — sign up for PEOPLE's free daily newsletter to stay up-to-date on the best of what PEOPLE has to offer​​, from celebrity news to compelling human interest stories.

Prior to the storm and subsequent sinking, some of the luxury yacht’s passengers were in celebration mode. They had been commemorating the recent acquittal of one of the victims, Lynch, 59, a source close to the survivors previously told PEOPLE.

Two months ago, Lynch was acquitted on all counts of a series of fraud and conspiracy charges he faced in the U.S. after a years-long legal battle dating back to 2018.

Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty 

He celebrated the acquittal on the Bayesian with his daughter and his wife, Angela Bacare, who was rescued along with 14 others on board.

Also celebrating were Morvillo, 59, who represented Lynch in the case, and Bloomer, 70, who was a close friend of the tech entrepreneur.

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Divers uncover the 6th missing body after luxury superyacht sank in freak storm off Sicily. Here's what we know about the incident.

Rescue crews recovered the sixth and final missing body off the coast of Sicily, the Italian coast guard said Friday.

It's been five days since the Bayesian, a luxury superyacht, sank after it was caught in the middle of an unexpected and violent storm. Six passengers were reported missing at the time.

British tech magnate Mike Lynch, who seemed to have been hosting a celebration on the yacht after being acquitted of fraud charges in June, was one of those missing. His body was recovered on Thursday.

While Italian officials did not identify the last body, Lynch's 18-year-old daughter was the only person unaccounted for.

An investigation has been launched looking into the sinking. Naval marine experts said a boat like the Bayesian should have withstood the storm. Giovanni Costantino, the CEO of the Italian Sea Group, which owns the company that made the Bayesian, alleged to Reuters that the shipwreck was caused by "indescribable, unreasonable errors" made by the crew and not any design or construction issues.

What happened?

The Bayesian capsized about half a mile off the coast of Porticello, a small fishing village. There were 22 people on board — 12 passengers and 10 crew members. The City Council of Bagheria said in a statement that seven adults were taken to the emergency room following the rescue, but “it seems that none are in serious conditions.”

While crews searched for the remaining bodies, others are trying to confirm why the boat sank in the first place. According to a BBC report , a heavy storm hit the coast of Sicily and created waterspouts , which are tornadoes that form over water. The waterspout winds were so powerful that they broke the boat’s mast in half, causing the ship, which was anchored, to lose its balance and sink.

The U.K.’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch plans to send a team of four investigators to make a preliminary assessment of why the Bayesian sank and why people were still on board.

As the ship was going down, 15 people were able to make it to safety and were rescued by a nearby boat.

The crew on a Dutch-flagged vessel nearby noticed the yacht had disappeared and saw flares being set off in the sea. They went to help survivors before the Italian coast guard could arrive.

One British passenger, Charlotte Golunski, told reporters she kept her 1-year-old daughter alive by holding her up above the water until they got on a lifeboat.

The wreck was found around 164 feet beneath the water's surface. More than 400 people, including 28 specialist divers, were involved in the rescue efforts.

What to know about the Bayesian

Charter sites list the yacht’s weekly rent as $215,000, the Associated Press reported .

Boat International , a superyacht and luxury yacht guide, reported that the Bayesian had the tallest aluminum mast in the world at over 240 feet, making it one of the 50 largest sailing yachts in the world.

Who is Mike Lynch?

Lynch, 59, founded the software firm Autonomy and recently faced a legal battle with U.S.-based Hewlett-Packard after the tech company accused him of inflating Autonomy’s value in an $11 billion sale in 2011.

Lynch was acquitted of multiple fraud charges in June after a three-month trial, avoiding a potential 20-year jail sentence.

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Mike lynch, recently acquitted in hp-autonomy fraud case, is missing after yacht capsized off sicily (updated).

Mike Lynch, the investor and high-profile founder of U.K. tech firm Autonomy, has been declared missing at sea after the yacht he was on, the Bayesian, capsized in a storm off the coast of Sicily early Monday morning. Lynch's wife, Angela Bacares, is one of the 15 who have been rescued. The news is a dramatic, tragic development for one of the more colorful, and sometimes controversial, figures in technology out of the U.K.

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Bodies of Autonomy founder Mike Lynch and his daughter recovered from sunken Bayesian yacht

Mike Lynch, the U.K. investor and founder of IT company Autonomy, has been identified as one of two bodies recovered from the Bayesian, the yacht that sunk off the coast of Sicily early Monday, according to several reports coming out of the country that cite the chief of Civil Protection, Salvo Cocina. The boat, registered to Lynch's wife, Angela Bacares, quickly capsized in the early hours of Monday after it was struck by a tornado-like water column. In a tragic coincidence, Chamberlain was hit by a car last Saturday and died of his wounds earlier this week.

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Body of last victim left missing after tech magnate Mike Lynch's family yacht sank off Sicily is recovered

By Anna Matranga

Updated on: August 23, 2024 / 8:12 AM EDT / CBS News

Divers have recovered the remains of the last person who was left missing when the superyacht Bayesian sank early Monday off the coast of Sicily, the head of the island's Civil Protection agency, Salvo Cocina, told CBS News on Friday. The body has been brought to shore, not been formally identified. 

It is believed to be that of Hannah Lynch, British  tech magnate Mike Lynch 's 18-year-old daughter, according to Italian media. 

Mike Lynch's body was retrieved Thursday from inside the sunken vessel, which was left resting on the seabed at a depth of more than 160 feet, at a 90 degree angle, making rescue efforts complicated and dangerous. 

Shortly after the 184-foot luxury sailing yacht sank, the body of the ship's cook was recovered from the water near the wreck. Divers managed to retrieve four other bodies from the Bayesian on Wednesday, including two Americans.

bayesian-yacht.jpg

With the recovery of the body on Friday, the total number of victims rises to seven, accounting fully for all of those who were on the boat owned by Mike Lynch's wife Angela Bacares. 

Fifteen people survived the sinking, including Bacares. The survivors were found on a life raft by the captain of a boat that had been anchored nearby.

Prosecutors have been questioning survivors and witnesses to determine what could have caused the luxury superyacht, equipped with state-of-the-art safety equipment, to sink within what witnesses said was a matter of minutes during a storm. 

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Mike Lynch: Seven key unanswered questions around the sinking of the Bayesian

With the search continuing of the sunken bayesian an investigation has been launched to establish what caused the disaster off the coast of sicily, article bookmarked.

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With the Bayesian lying on her side 50 metres underneath the now gentle waters of the Mediterranean, mystery still surrounds how the 56-metre superyacht, sank in the typhoon off the port of Porticello.

Remotely controlled underwater vehicles and cave divers are looking to raise the yacht , which experts will examine in the coming days.

Italian publication Giornale di Sicilia reported post-mortem examinations were completed at a Palermo hospital and the bodies have now been returned.

The Bayesian was hit by a suspected “downburst” of strong wind early on 19 August. The 56m-long, £30 million yacht drifted for about 400 metres from its anchorage near the fishing port of Porticello before sinking.

Fifteen of the 22 passengers and crew survived the incident by clambering onto an inflatable liferaft.

The bodies of tech billionaire Mike Lynch, dubbed “Britain’s Bill Gates“, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah and four other people were found by divers on board. Post-mortem examinations suggest they had been trapped in a room below deck.

Jonathan Bloomer, the international chairman of Morgan Stanley Bank; his wife Judith, a psychotherapist; Christopher Morvillo, a US lawyer; and his wife Neda, a jewellery designer, also died in the sinking.

Mike Lynch is among those confirmed as dead

It will take weeks for Ambrogio Cartosio, the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, and his team to establish whether the sinking of the Bayesian was down to human error, an unpredictable weather event or whether anyone is liable.

Italian Navy divers have recovered video surveillance equipment from the wreckage parts of the deck, computer material, video surveillance systems, hard drives and various other equipment, that could explain how the Bayesian sank.

Prosecutors have said they will interview the survivors – some of whom were pictured leaving the Domina Zagarella hotel in Santa Flavia, which has become the headquarters for survivors, police and rescuers.

Many questions face the investigators:

Mike Lynch yacht latest: Fifth body found inside Bayesian boat sunken off coast of Sicily

Were access hatches left open?

One expert at the scene in Sicily said an early focus of the investigation would be on whether the yacht’s crew had failed to close access hatches before the tornado struck.

Yachting experts have suggested that the hatches being open could have allowed the Bayesian to fill with water quickly and sink.

But Andrea Ratti, a nautical design professor at Polytechnic University of Milan, said a boat the size of the Bayesian could only sink so rapidly by taking in a huge amount of water.

“One can make plausible assumptions that leave room for doubt,” he said, before suggesting that one or more portholes, windows or other openings may have been broken or smashed open by the waterspout.

The recovered video could show whether the crews left doors open, which might have allowed the yacht to flood.

Was the boat prepared for a storm?

Prosecutors will look at whether appropriate measures were taken in preparation for the storm.

The luxury superyacht called ‘The Bayesian’ off Porticello, Palermo

The yacht’s captain, James Catfield, from New Zealand, told Italian media of the suddenness of the waterspout that turned a luxury super yacht into a death trap.

“We just didn’t see it coming,” he said.

Luca Mercalli, the president of the Italian Meteorological Society, said on Tuesday that the crew should have made sure that all the guests were awake and given them lifejackets in light of the forecasted heavy rains.

The coast guard said bad weather had been forecast, but added that it was more virulent than expected. Some locals spoke of a waterspout, or sea whirlwind, of exceptional force.

“It was a strange thing,” fisherman Andrea Carini said. The Bayesian was at anchor, its sails down, when the tempest hit, with another yacht moored nearby.

A nearby yacht, the 42-metre Sir Robert Baden Powell, remained anchored and weathered the storm after its captain turned on the engine to keep control of the vessel and avoid a collision with the Bayesian.

Moment Bayesian yacht is engulfed by storm

The captain, Karsten Borner, said he did not know whether the crew of the Bayesian had managed to switch on its engines.

“I don’t think they did things wrong, I think they were surprised by the power of the storm,” he said.

“I only know that they went flat with the mast on the water and that they sank in two minutes,” he said, adding that the storm was “very violent, very intense”, bringing in “a lot of water and I think a turning system like a tornado”.

Did the world’s largest aluminium mast have anything to do with the sinking?

The Bayesian has one of the largest masts in the world

The Bayesian was built by Italian shipbuilder Perini in 2008 with a 75m (246ft) mast which it claims is the tallest aluminium mast in the world.

Scott Painter, who took over Lynch’s multi-billion dollar software company called Autonomy, founded in 1996, said Lynch’s yacht may have been more vulnerable due to the mast.

“The mast was the ultimate sailor’s bragging right,” Painter told the outlet. “That mast must’ve been over 240 feet tall, which is either the tallest or second tallest in the world.”

He added: “That could certainly contribute to a capsize as it would destabilize the yacht. And if it were to lean over too far, it could absolutely capsize the yacht.”

Captain Borner said: “If the mast had been broken they wouldn’t have capsized.”

Would a lightning shock wave damage the mast?

Colonel Attilio Di Diodato, director of the Italian Air Force’s Center for Aerospace Meteorology and Climatology, said the agency had registered intense lightning activity and strong gusts of wind in the area.

The Bayesian had one of the tallest aluminium masts in the world, according to its builder, Perini Navi.

“Having a tall aluminium mast would not make it the safest port to be in case of a storm,” said Andrea Ratti, associate professor of nautical design and architecture technology told the Politecnico di Milano.

The type of intensity unleashed by a violent lightning storm “could have created a significant shock wave”, he added.

Was the Bayesian keel retractable and was it down?

The Bayesian had a retractable keel, a fin-like apparatus under the hull that helps stabilise boats and acts as a counterweight to the mast. It is not known whether it was down at the time of the vicious storm.

Both Ratti and Mattioni questioned whether the yacht had been anchored with the keel up, reducing the vessel’s depth under water and making it less stable. Ratti said strong winds might have caused the boat to start oscillating wildly, “like a pendulum”, putting exceptional strain on the mast.

Divers have only ten minutes to investigate boat

Was the the Bayesian properly anchored?

Tom Sharpe, a retired Royal Navy commander and defence commentator, told CBC News that a mast the size of the Bayesian’s is designed for a massive sail, and without that sail raised and catching the wind, the gusts likely would’ve had a negligible impact on the aluminum pole.

He instead suggested the anchor may have played a pivotal role.

“My kind of working assumption is that she was probably a bit further in at anchor, and it’s very likely, in these sort of conditions, that her anchor dragged,” he said.

He added the 10-strong crew was better off steering toward the anchor to stabilise the yacht or even raising the anchor and steering into the open Meditteranean to ride out the storm.

“They might have got caught in that middle ground where they’re not on a particularly good anchorage but the anchor is now controlling the bow of the ship”, he posted.

Prosecutors have said their investigation will take time, and will require the wreck to be pulled up from the sea bed.

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NBC 6 South Florida

Autopsies show drowning as the cause of death for a US banker and wife in super yacht sinking

U.s. lawyer chris morvillo and his wife neda were among seven people who died when the bayesian sank in a sudden, violent storm on aug. 19, by the associated press • published september 2, 2024 • updated on september 2, 2024 at 2:41 pm.

The first autopsies of victims of the Bayesian super yacht sinking off Sicily show drowning as the cause of death, authorities said Monday.

U.S. lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda were among seven people who died when the Bayesian sank in a sudden, violent storm on Aug. 19. The autopsies were carried out by coroners designated by Palermo prosecutors, who confirmed the results.

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Autopsies are planned Wednesday on the bodies of Jonathan Bloomer, chairman of Morgan Stanley’s London-based investment banking subsidiary, and his wife, Judy.

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They are pending for the remaining three victims, British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, who had organized the yacht trip to celebrate a recent legal victory, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah and the yacht’s cook, Recaldo Thomas.

Morvillo was one of Lynch’s U.S. lawyers in a fraud case involving the sale in 2011 of Autonomy, a search engine company that became a symbol of British ingenuity, to Hewlett-Packard, in an $11 billion deal that quickly turned sour over allegations Lynch had cooked the books to overvalue Autonomy. He was acquitted in June.

Prosecutors are investigating the captain and two crew members for possible responsibility in connection with the sinking. The 56-meter (184-foot) British-flagged luxury yacht sank during what appears to have been a sudden downburst, or localized powerful wind from a thunderstorm that spreads rapidly after hitting the surface. Fifteen people, including Lynch's wife, were rescued.

Prosecutors said raising the Bayesian and examining the yacht for evidence would provide key elements to the investigation. No timeline has been determined.

super yachts that have sunk

Captain of yacht that sank off Sicily faces manslaughter investigation, Italian media say

super yachts that have sunk

Inside the shocking Sicily yacht tragedy that left 7 people dead

super yachts that have sunk

Tech magnate Mike Lynch's body found in sunken superyacht wreckage, officials say

This article tagged under:.

super yachts that have sunk

Tech magnate missing after luxury superyacht sinks off Sicily in 'violent storm'

A British tech magnate and several other people are missing after a luxury superyacht sank near Sicily’s main city, Palermo, during a violent storm, Italian officials and sources familiar with the matter told CNBC . At least one person was killed.

Mike Lynch, who was regularly described in U.K. media as “Britain’s Bill Gates,” was not among those rescued, said the sources, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the situation. They added that Angela Bacares, Lynch’s wife, had been plucked from the waters off the Italian island.

Lynch was among six people who were unaccounted for, The Associated Press quoted Salvo Cocina of Sicily’s civil protection agency as saying. “They were in the wrong place at the wrong time,” he said. Cocina also confirmed that Bacares had survived.

Italy's coast guard said in a statement that the 184-foot sailboat, named the Bayesian, sank “due to a violent storm” off Palermo at around 5 a.m. local time (11 p.m. ET) with 22 people on board. Fifteen people were rescued, and six passengers were missing, it said.

American, British and Canadian citizens were among the missing, the statement said. The coast guard said in later statement that the ship’s cook had died. It did not give the cook's nationality.  

Karsten Borner, the captain of a ship that rescued the survivors, told reporters that there was a “strong hurricane gust, and we had to start the engine to keep the ship in an angled position,” according to Reuters.

He added that they had “watched the ship behind us not to touch them and we managed to keep the ship in position.” After the storm was over, he said, “we noticed that the ship behind us was gone.”

“Fifteen people inside. Four people were injured, three heavily injured, and we brought them to our ship, he said. “Then we communicated with the coast guard, and after some time, the coast guard came and later picked up injured people.”

UK's vessel Bayesian

One of the survivors, identified as Charlotte Emsley, 35, told the Italian news agency ANSA that she had momentarily lost hold of her 1-year-old daughter, Sofia, in the water but managed to retrieve her and hold her up over the waves until a lifeboat inflated and they were pulled to safety.

“I immediately hugged her again amid the fury of the waves. I held her tight, close to me, while the sea was stormy,” she said. “Many were screaming. Luckily, the lifeboat inflated, and 11 of us managed to get on it.”

The City Council of Bagheria said in a statement that a child of that age was being treated at a children’s hospital. It said that seven adults were taken to the emergency room but that “it seems that none are in serious conditions.” 

UK businessman Mike Lynch, who was recently acquitted in the US of an $11 billion fraud, is among those missing after a superyacht sank off southern Italy, a source close to the rescue effort said on August 19, 2024.

Lynch, 59, the missing tech entrepreneur, founded the enterprise software firm Autonomy and became the target of a protracted legal battle with Hewlett-Packard after the U.S. tech giant accused him of inflating the company’s value in an $11 billion sale. Extradited from Britain to the U.S. last year to stand trial, he was acquitted of fraud after a three-month trial.

Italy’s national fire department said in a statement that “divers, a motorboat and a helicopter” had been deployed to help with the search. The wreck was at a depth of around 165 feet, the statement said.  

Divers from the Sicilian city of Sassri and Naples, a city on the Italian mainland , were “arriving on site to search inside the sunken vessel,” it said. 

Built by Italian shipbuilder Perini in 2008, the U.K.-registered Bayesian has an aluminum hull and can carry 12 guests and a crew of up to 10, according to online specialist yacht sites. Online sites list the luxury vessel for charter for up to 195,000 euros (about $215,000) a week, the AP reported.

The boat left the Sicilian port of Milazzo on Wednesday and was last tracked east of Palermo on Sunday evening, with a navigation status of “at anchor,” according to the vessel tracking app Vesselfinder.

Fabio La Bianca, 40, took a picture of the boat at around 10 p.m. local time Sunday shortly after he closed his bar in nearby Santa Flavia. “Absurd tragedy tonight. I am lost for words,” he said Monday on Facebook.

super yachts that have sunk

Matteo Moschella is a London-based reporter for NBC News' Social Newsgathering team.

super yachts that have sunk

Henry Austin is a senior editor for NBC News Digital based in London.

Sailing yachts like Mike Lynch's are 'unsinkable bodies', CEO of boat manufacturing firm says

Bayesian superyacht which sank off Italy is an "unsinkable" vessel, Giovanni Costantino, CEO of The Italian Sea Group, said.

By Ashna Hurynag, news correspondent and Eleonora Chiarella, producer

Sunday 25 August 2024 08:48, UK

Pic:Danny Wheelz

Vessels like Mike Lynch's stricken superyacht are "unsinkable", according to the chief executive of the firm which makes and sells them.

Giovanni Costantino, CEO of The Italian Sea Group, told Sky News there are no flaws with the design and construction of the Bayesian superyacht which capsized in a storm off the coast of Porticello, Sicily, on Monday.

Five bodies were found by divers on Wednesday - taking the number of confirmed dead to six.

The Italian Sea Group also owns the firm that built British tech tycoon Mr Lynch's Bayesian, and Mr Costantino said the vessels "are the safest in the most absolute sense".

News of the sinking left CEO of The Italian Sea Group Giovanni Costantino in ‘sadness on the one hand and disbelief on the other’.

"Being the manufacturer of Perini [boats], I know very well how the boats have always been designed and built," he said.

"And as Perini is a sailing ship... sailing ships are renowned to be the safest ever."

He said their structure and keel made them "unsinkable bodies".

Read more on this story: Why search of superyacht wreck has been so difficult Hero mum 'slept with baby on deck when storm sank yacht'

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super yachts that have sunk

Mr Costantino said news of the sinking "put me in a state of sadness on one side and of disbelief on the other".

"This incident sounds like an unbelievable story, both technically and as a fact," he said.

It is understood Italian prosecutors investigating the incident are continuing to hold interviews with the survivors.

Pic:Perini Navi/The Italian Sea Group

On Tuesday they questioned the captain for more than two hours to help reconstruct what happened and provide useful technical details.

Four British inspectors are also in Porticello and have begun a preliminary assessment of events.

It is understood they will look at all relevant aspects of the incident, including the design, stability, and operation of the vessel. They will also examine the effects of the weather conditions experienced.

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Twenty-two people were on board the vessel, 15 of whom were rescued - including Briton Charlotte Golunski and her one-year-old daughter Sofia.

Divers will resume efforts on Thursday morning to bring ashore a body they found earlier. One more person remains missing.

Related Topics

  • Superyacht sinking

super yachts that have sunk

Bayesian yacht sinking: Horror of those trapped in bedrooms described by former captain

LIVE – Updated at 11:14

A former captain of the Bayesian has described the terrifying obstacles facing those trapped in the cabins as the Bayesian superyacht overturned killing seven.

Stephen Edwards, who captained the Bayesian for five years until 2020, told The Telegraph : “Those who stayed curled up in bed were in the worst situation.

“The storm hit hard, placing them in the melee of flying furniture, glass and other items,” he said adding he had spoken to traumatised crew members.

“Inside the cabins, the only way to think of this is that people were lying in their beds one minute, and the next the room was on its side, totally dark, with the door now either in the floor or in the ceiling above.”

It came as divers race to retrieve Mike Lynch’s personal hard drives locked in a safe on the ocean floor, according to reports.

Italian newspaper la Repubblica reported that the tech billionaire, whose clients included MI5, the NSA and the Israeli secret service, didn’t trust confidential documents on the cloud and kept two encrypted hard drives in a safe which now lies 49 metres below sea level.

Italian navy recover video equipment

  • Two encrypted hard drives of Mike Lynch remain 49m underwater locked in safe - report

Professor fears more deaths by ‘medicanes’ after Bayesian tragedy

Mike lynch’s yacht was ‘unsinkable’, says boss of company who built boat.

  • Seven key unanswered questions around the sinking of the Bayesian

Mike Lynch net worth: How the billionaire made his money

Mike Lynch was frequently described as the Bill Gates of Britain for founding Autonomy – one of the biggest software firms on the planet

Former captain describes horror of those trapped in cabins

Stephen Edwards, who captained the Bayesian for five years until 2020, told the Telegraph that he had spoken to crew members onboard during the sinking who recounted the horrors facing those onboard.

He said: “The storm hit hard, placing them in the melee of flying furniture, glass and other items.

“Some had made it to the saloon at this point and they are the ones who survived, as their route outside would have been a little clearer.

“Inside the cabins, the only way to think of this is that people were lying in their beds one minute, and the next the room was on its side, totally dark, with the door now either in the floor or in the ceiling above.

“Cabinets crashed open as the catches were weak, resulting in glassware and crockery falling out. I’m told almost all the furniture broke loose inside the boat.”

Mike Lynch’s wife, along with 14 others, survived and were rescued by a nearby vessel that was unscathed.

Italian Navy divers have recovered video surveillance equipment from the wreckage of billionaire Mike Lynch’s Bayesian superyacht that could explain how it sank.

The British tech tycoon’s boat had been moored near the port of Porticello on 19 August when it sank during the early hours of the morning. It is now lying 50m below the surface.

Among those killed were Mr Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, who had been due to begin studying at Oxford University in September, as well as four other family friends and associates.

Divers hunting for clues on how Mike Lynch’s superyacht sank make discovery

What happens now weeks after tragic sinking?

Prosecutors are investigating the captain , New Zealander James Cutfield, and two crew members for possible responsibility in connection with the sinking.

Mr Cutfield is under investigation for possible manslaughter and culpable shipwreck charges. Tim Parker Eaton — the engineer who was in charge of securing the yacht’s engine room — and sailor Matthew Griffith — who was on watch duty on the night of the disaster — are now under investigation for the same possible charges, their lawyer said.

Chief prosecutor Ambrogio Cartosio, who is heading the investigation, has said his team will consider each possible element of responsibility including those of the captain, the crew, individuals in charge of supervision and the yacht’s manufacturer.

Investigators are focusing on how a sailing vessel deemed “unsinkable” by its manufacturer, Italian shipyard Perini Navi, sank while a nearby sailboat remained largely unscathed. They added raising the Bayesian and examining the yacht for evidence would provide key elements to the investigation.

Maritime director of western Sicily, Rear Admiral Raffaele Macauda of the coastguard, could not confirm how long it would take to retrieve the shipwreck of the sunken yacht, adding recovering the fuel tanks was a “priority for us because it has environmental knock-on effects”.

Special forces divers and robots search Mike Lynch’s sunken Bayesian yacht for clues

Specialist military divers are currently searching the sunken Bayesian yacht for clues as to why it sunk in a freak storm off the coast of Siciliy, killing seven passengers.

British tech tycoon Mike Lynch’s boat had been moored near the port of Porticello on 19 August when it sank during the early hours of the morning, and is now lying 50 metres below the surface of the water.

About six divers from the Italian navy ’s Comsubin unit are investigating the superyacht for electronic equipment, which includes data storage and CCTV and to see if doors were left open during the storm.

Holly Evans reports:

Chris Morvillo and wife drowned aboard Bayesian

Italian authorities said the first post-mortem examinations on the victims had been carried out on US lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda . The results confirmed that the pair had drowned.

Morvillo was a partner at Clifford Chance, a white-collar law firm. He previously worked as a federal prosecutor who investigated the September 11 terror attacks, according to the New York Post .

Investigators hope to recover data on sinking of Bayesian

Navy divers recovered hard drives of the video surveillance system on board the Bayesian hopefully revealing the final moments before the tragic sinking of the superyacht.

In the engine room there were the hard disks that catalogued the parameters regarding the electric and thermal propulsion.

“We hope to be able to read something from the media”, an investigator told La Repubblica. They added “Unfortunately they are standard models that are not resistant to water and pressure”.

There was no black box on board the 700-tonne sailing vessel that sank in minutes. It was not required to have one, as it was not a commercial cruise ship.

'Mike Lynch files may be target for hostile spy agencies’

Divers are searching the sea floor for Mike Lynch’s high-tech hard drives before they can fall into enemy hands reports La Repubblica - Italy’s second-biggest newspaper.

Sources told the paper the disks held: “the great digital archive of the IT entrepreneur whose clients included the British MI5, the American NSA and the Israeli services”.

The Italian newspaper said the “super drives” are protected by “cutting-edge encryption”.

The Sun reported the drives now could be a target for the hostile spy agencies of Russia, China, and Iran as they seek to steal valuable secrets.

Autopsies reveal cause of death of US lawyer and wife onboard Mike Lynch’s superyacht

Autopsies have been carried out on a couple who drowned on Mike Lynch’s superyacht when it sank off the coast of Sicily last month.

Seven lives were lost when the British-flagged boat, called the Bayesian, went down in a freak storm while anchored near the Sicilian capital of Palermo on 19 August.

Darktrace to be taken over after Mike Lynch’s death

Darktrace shares are set to stop trading publicly at the end of September, after the company set a timetable for its blockbuster private equity takeover to be completed.

The private equity group Thoma Bravo struck an almost 5.31 billion dollar (£4.3 billion) deal to buy Darktrace in April.

Darktrace AI interrupts in-progress cyber-attacks in seconds, including ransomware, email phishing, and threats to cloud environments.

It marks one of the biggest take-private deals for a London-listed company in recent years, and will see Darktrace leave the FTSE 100 on October 1.

Poppy Gustafsson helped to set up the Cambridge-based company in 2013 alongside Autonomy founder Mike Lynch.

Mr Lynch, and his daughter Hannah, were among seven people to die after the Bayesian superyacht sank off the coast of Sicily last month.

Bodies flown back to UK on private planes - report

The bodies of Mike Lynch, his daughter Hannah, 18, and the other victims of the Bayesian disaster have been flown back to their families after their post-mortems, according to reports.

They were repatriated on private planes, with their private funerals expected to be held over the coming days, Italian media reports.

The British tech tycoon ’s boat had been moored near the port of Porticello on 19 August when it sank during the early hours of the morning . It is now lying 50m below the surface.

Among those killed were Mr Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, who had been due to begin studying at Oxford University in September, as well as four other family friends and associates .

Jonathan Bloomer, the international chairman of Morgan Stanley Bank; his wife Judith, a psychotherapist; Christopher Morvillo, a US lawyer; and his wife Neda, a jewellery designer also died in the sinking.

Also killed was the yacht’s chef, Recaldo Thomas, whose body was recovered floating near the wreckage.

Four victims found with carbon dioxide in lungs

Tech billionaire Mike Lynch, his daughter Hannah, 18, and five other people died when the Bayesian went down in a downburst, which is similar to a small tornado.

Chef Recaldo Thomas, Jonathan Bloomer, the Morgan Stanley International bank chairman, his wife Judy, and Chris Morvillo, a Clifford Chance lawyer, and his wife Neda, were the other victims of the August 19 tragedy.

Four of the victims are feared to have suffocated to death in air bubbles that filled with carbon dioxide, according to their autopsies raising the frightening possibility that they may have been conscious after the yacht sank, according to Italian news outlet La Republica.

Fifteen people, including Angela Bacares, Lynch’s wife, survived when they were rescued by a nearby yacht.

Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, said there are no flaws with the design and construction of the Bayesian and it is “one of the safest boats in the world”.

The Bayesian, a 184-ft superyacht carrying 22 passengers and crew, was anchored off the port of Porticello, near Palermo, when it disappeared beneath the waves in a matter of minutes after a freak tornado struck.

“The ship sank because it took on water, from where investigators will have to say,” Mr Costantino told television news programme TG1.

He suggested that the sinking was down to a series of human errors.

The CEO said that had the crew shut all doors and hatches, turned on the engine, lifted the anchor, lowered the keel and turned the yacht to face the wind, they would have suffered “zero damage”.

He added that data showed it took 16 minutes from when the wind began for it to sink.

Cartoisio said the tragedy will be even more painful if the sinking was caused by “behaviours that were not aligned to the responsibilities that everyone needs to take in shipping”.

Bodies of Mike Lynch and daughter Hannah flown back to families after Bayesian superyacht sinking

The bodies of those who died after the billionaire Mike Lynch’s Bayesian superyacht sunk off the coast of Sicily have been flown back to their families by private jet.

Italian publication Giornale di Sicilia reported post-mortem examinations were completed at a Palermo hospital and the bodies have now been returned.

My colleague Tom Watling reports:

Bodies of Mike Lynch and daughter flown back to UK after Bayesian tragedy

Captain gives his account of tragic sinking

Captain James Cutfield previously gave his terrifying account before invoking his right to remain silent.

According to Correire, he told prosecutors: “Seaman Griffiths came to wake me up and told me that there were 20 knots of wind.

“I looked at the instruments and indeed that was the case. I went out immediately and asked them to warn everyone because I didn’t like the situation.”

He said the Bayesian tilted 45 degrees “and remained like that for a bit and then suddenly fell to the right.

“We were catapulted into the sea”.

Seaman Matthew Griffiths, 22, said: “We somehow climbed back up to the bridge and tried to form a human chain to save those who managed to reach that gap from the accommodation deck ... they were struggling on the walls because the boat was lying in the water.

“The first in the chain was the captain who stretched down. He helped everyone, the ladies, the mother with the little girl ... But we were sinking and unfortunately some didn’t make it .”

Mr Griffiths joins fellow Brit Tim Parker-Eaton, 56, and Kiwi skipper James Cutfield, 51, on the official list of those being formally investigated for shipwreck and multiple manslaughter.

Being investigated does not equate to being charged and is a procedural step.

Professor Yoav Yair, Dean of the School of Sustainability at Reichman University in Israel, told the Mirror that storms dubbed ‘medicanes’ - Mediterranean hurricanes - could cause similar sinkings like the Bayesian superyacht.

He said: “It is not a matter of if this (the Bayesian disaster) will happen again, but rather it’s when and where.

“In the last couple of years we have seen medicanes - which are a new phenomena. These are hurricane-like storms that pack a lot of energy, and create flash flooding, torrential rains, lightning, hail and severe sustained winds. The 2023 “Daniel” medicane destroyed Libya and caused over 30,000 deaths there.

“The sea surface temperature has risen globally and in the Med as well, charging the atmosphere with increased fluxes of water vapor, which means a higher potential for massive storms.”

SEI218355854.jpg

NBC New York

Divers find 5 bodies during search of superyacht wreckage after it sank off Sicily, 1 still missing

The bayesian, a 56-meter (184-foot) british-flagged yacht, went down in a storm early monday, by nicole winfield, danica kirka and andrea rosa | the associated press • published august 21, 2024 • updated on august 21, 2024 at 4:19 pm.

Divers searching the wreck of a superyacht  that sank off Sicily found the bodies of five passengers Wednesday and searched for one more as questions intensified about why the vessel sank so quickly when a nearby sailboat remained largely unscathed.

Rescue crews brought four body bags ashore into port at Porticello. Salvatore Cocina, head of the Sicily civil protection agency, said a fifth body had been located. Divers at the scene said they would try to recover it on Thursday while continuing the search for the sixth.

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Video shows moments before superyacht went down in storm off Sicily

super yachts that have sunk

Missing revealed as divers search superyacht that sank in storm off Sicily

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The discovery made clear the operation to search the hull on the seabed 50 meters (164 feet) underwater had quickly turned into a recovery one, not a rescue, given the amount of time that had passed and with no signs of life emerging over three days of searching.

The Bayesian, a 56-meter (184-foot) British-flagged yacht, went down in a storm  early Monday  as it was moored about a kilometer (a half-mile) offshore. Civil protection officials said they believed the ship was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout, and sank quickly.

Fifteen people escaped in a lifeboat and were rescued by a nearby sailboat. One body was recovered Monday — that of the ship’s chef, Recaldo Thomas, of Antigua.

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Thomas was born in Canada, according to his cousin David Isaac, but would visit his parents’ homeland of Antigua as a child, moving permanently to the tiny eastern Caribbean island in his early 20s. Italian officials previously listed Antigua and Canada as the nationality of people on board.

The fate of six missing passengers had driven the search effort, including British tech magnate Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter and associates who had successfully defended him in a recent U.S. federal fraud trial.

Lynch’s spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment Wednesday.

Meanwhile, investigators from the Termini Imerese Public Prosecutor’s Office were acquiring evidence for their criminal investigation, which they opened immediately after the tragedy  even though no formal suspects have been publicly identified.

Questions have abounded about what caused the superyacht, built in 2008 by Italian shipyard Perini Navi, to sink so quickly, when the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell sailboat was largely spared and managed to rescue the survivors.

Giovanni Costantino, head of The Italian Sea Group, which owns the shipmaker, blamed human error for the disaster, which he said took 16 minutes. “The ship sank because it took on water. From where, the investigators will say,” he told RAI state television after he met with prosecutors.

Costantino cited AIS ship tracking data which he said showed the Bayesian had taken on water for four minutes when a sudden gust of wind flipped it and it continued taking on water. The ship straightened up slightly and then went down, he said.

But was it merely the case of a freak waterspout that knocked the ship to its side and allowed water to pour in through open hatches? What was the position of the keel, which on a large sailboat like the Bayesian might have been retractable, to allow it to enter shallower ports?

“There’s a lot of uncertainty as to whether it had a lifting keel and whether it might have been up,” said Jean-Baptiste Souppez, a fellow of the Royal Institute of Naval Architects and the editor of the Journal of Sailing Technology. “But if it had, then that would reduce the amount of stability that the vessel had, and therefore made it easier for it to roll over on its side,” he said in an interview.

The captain of the sailboat that came to the Bayesian’s rescue said his craft had sustained minimal damage — the frame of a sun awning broke — even with winds that he estimated reached 12 on the Beaufort wind scale, which is the highest hurricane-strength force on the scale.

He said he had remained anchored with his engines running to try to maintain the ship’s position as the storm, which was forecast, rolled in.

“Another possibility is to heave anchor before the storm and to run downwind at open sea,” Karsten Bornersaid in a text message. But he said that might not have been a viable option for the Bayesian, given its trademark 75-meter (246-foot) tall mast.

“If there was a stability problem, caused by the extremely tall mast, it would not have been better at open sea,” he said.

Yachts like the Bayesian are required to have watertight, sub-compartments that are specifically designed to prevent a rapid, catastrophic sinking even when some parts fill with water.

“So for the vessel to sink, especially this fast, you are really looking at taking water on board very quickly, but also in a number of locations along the length of the vessel, which again indicates that it might have been rolled over on its side,” Souppez said.

Italian coast guard and fire rescue divers continued the underwater search in dangerous and time-consuming conditions. Because of the wreck’s depth, which requires special precautions, divers working in tag teams could only spend about 12 minutes at a time searching, though reinforcements outfitted with special equipment to enable longer dives were also on the wreck Wednesday.

In all, some 27 divers were taking rotations, including four who helped with the recovery of the 2012 Costa Concordia disaster off Tuscany. They called the Porticello wreck a “little Concordia,” fire crews said in a statement, which for the first time Wednesday referred to the operation as a “recovery.”

The limited dive time was designed in part to avoid decompression sickness, also known as the “bends,” which can occur when divers stay underwater for long periods and ascend too quickly, allowing nitrogen gas dissolved in the blood to form bubbles.

“The longer you stay, the slower your ascent has to be,” said Simon Rogerson, the editor of SCUBA magazine. He said the tight turnaround time suggested the operation's managers were trying to limit the risks and recovery time after each dive.

“It sounds like they’re operating essentially on no decompression or very tight decompression, or they’re being extremely conservative,” he said.

Additionally, the divers were working in extremely tight spaces, with debris floating around them, limited visibility and air tanks on their backs.

“We are trying to advance in tight spaces, but any single thing slows us down,” said Luca Cari, spokesman for the fire rescue service. “An electric panel could set us back for five hours. These aren’t normal conditions. We’re at the limit of possibility.”

“It’s not a question of entering the cabin to inspect it,” he added. “They’ve arrived at the level of the cabins, but it’s not like you can open the door.”

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