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The mishap log of the "Bayesian" How the "unsinkable" boat sank within 32 minutes

Philipp Dahm

The sinking of the "Bayesian" was captured on a surveillance camera in Porticello harbor.

One week after the sinking of the superyacht "Bayesian", the Italian public prosecutor's office continues to puzzle over the background to the accident. How can an "unsinkable" ship disappear within 32 minutes?

26.08.2024, 19:43

27.08.2024, 14:06

Tobias Benz

No time? blue News summarizes for you

  • The luxury yacht "Bayesian" sank unusually quickly on August 19 during a stormy night off Sicily.
  • Seven of the 22 people on board lost their lives in the accident.
  • Deadly squall: The Italian public prosecutor's office assumes that the accident was caused by a local weather phenomenon.
  • It is still unclear how it was possible for water to enter the ship and why the crew was unable to react in time.

Porticello, Sicily, August 19, 2024

Shortly after 4 a.m., local fisherman Fabio Cefalù notices a tornado over the sea off the otherwise idyllic little coastal village in southern Italy in pouring rain and poor visibility.

Like everyone else, he decides not to go out on his boat that morning. He waits for the storm to pass. "The storm lasted about 12 minutes," Cefalù will later tell numerous journalists.

"Then I saw the distress rocket."

Cefalù immediately started the engine and rushed out to sea. "That was at 4.30 a.m., more or less" - around 300 meters off the coast, the "Bayesian" was in distress. But when the Sicilian fisherman arrives at the scene of the accident, the superyacht has disappeared without a trace. Only a few seat cushions, wooden planks and other utensils are floating in the water.

"We didn't see it coming"

An "unsinkable" 40-million-dollar yacht is swallowed up by the sea in a matter of minutes. How is this possible?

The investigation by the Italian public prosecutor's office in Porticello has been in full swing for a week. Together with the 15 survivors, the investigators are trying to reconstruct what happened on the "Bayesian" in the 32 minutes between the first intake of water and the firing of the distress rocket.

So far, two things have emerged: the yacht was probably hit by an extraordinary local weather event. And: something seems to have happened to allow large quantities of water to enter the ship, which according to the manufacturer was "unsinkable".

Images from a surveillance camera in the port of Porticello show the unusually rapid sinking of the yacht and also provide an insight into the stormy weather conditions that prevailed at the time.

"We didn't see it coming" was the only sentence uttered by James Cutfield, the New Zealand captain of the yacht, when he was taken to the emergency room immediately after the accident, according to the Italian media .

Since then, no quoted statements from the captain, the crew or the surviving guests are known. They have been completely shielded from journalists since the accident. The Italian investigators, on the other hand, have numerous questions.

Civil defense warned of "thunderstorms and strong gusts of wind"

What is curious is that the captain could not have been unaware that the weather conditions were deteriorating rapidly on that Sunday evening: In addition to the warning from the Italian Civil Protection, which announced "rainfall in the form of showers or thunderstorms" accompanied by "heavy rain, frequent electrical activity, localized hail and strong gusts of wind", there were several reports confirming the approach of a weather disturbance in the Porticello area.

However, Cutfield, who has been questioned twice so far, is said to have insisted that the crew were taken by surprise by the sudden storm. He said the captain "wasn't worried" despite the looming bad weather because there was no storm warning for Porticello.

According to investigators, in the case of the "Bayesian", a so-called "downburst" was responsible for the accident. This phenomenon usually occurs during thunderstorms and poses a danger to ships due to strongly accelerated downdrafts. The winds can reach the speed of a tornado.

Was a side hatch left open?

Further questions arise due to the short period of time in which the ship sank. "First the boat tipped on its side and within a few minutes it had sunk. It all happened very quickly," says Karsten Borner, the German captain of a ship that was nearby and came to the aid of the survivors.

Borner and his ship were also exposed to the storm, but were able to react in time. "There were very strong, hurricane-force gusts of wind. We tried to stabilize our boat by starting the engine and trying not to hit the bay," Borner told " Repubblica ". "When the storm subsided, we realized that the boat had disappeared behind us."

The "Bayesian" was probably only able to sink so quickly because it took on a lot of water in a very short time. According to the manufacturer, the superyacht is actually "one of the safest ships in the world".

"Under extreme conditions, the boat can roll as much as it wants, but it won't sink," Franco Romani, an engineer who was involved in the construction of the "Bayesian", explains to the " Corriere della Sera ".

His guess: the crew left the side hatch open, which is used to take the dinghy out and dive. "If you close everything, the water can't get in. But with the side hatch, there is a 60-centimeter gap."

Other experts speculate that a centerboard on the hull, which can be used to regulate the draft of the ship, may have been incorrectly adjusted. Another possibility is that the yacht was lifted by the storm, causing cracks to form in the hull.

The "Bayesian" originally cost around 40 million dollars.

"The victims were probably asleep"

Another question that the Italian public prosecutor's office is likely to ask itself is the composition of the survivors. How is it that only one of the ten crew members died, while six of the twelve passengers lost their lives? Were the crew already on deck when the storm hit and did they not alert those who were still asleep in their cabins?

According to Raffaele Cammarano, the public prosecutor in the case of the "Bayesian", this is a possible scenario. "The victims were probably asleep when it happened," says Cammarano. Why they were not woken and alerted is "exactly what we are trying to find out during the interrogations of the survivors".

The fact that no other ships in the vicinity were in serious distress also suggests a chain of errors that took place before and during the fateful 32 minutes on board the "Bayesian".

The public prosecutor's office has now opened proceedings against Captain Cutfield for shipwreck and multiple counts of negligent homicide. Further interviews are scheduled for Monday and next week. Investigators are also hoping to gain new insights from diving robots examining the wreck of the "Bayesian".

Public prosecutor investigates homicide after yacht sinking - Gallery. British billionaire Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah, who died in the sinking of the "Bayesian". (archive picture)

British billionaire Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah, who died in the sinking of the "Bayesian". (archive picture)

Image: Uncredited/Lynch family via TANCREDI/AP

Public prosecutor investigates homicide after yacht sinking - Gallery. Investigators speak out after the sinking of the "Bayesian".

Investigators speak out after the sinking of the "Bayesian".

Public prosecutor investigates homicide after yacht sinking - Gallery. Public prosecutor Raffaele Cammarano said at a press conference in Palermo: "It was a sudden, abrupt event."

Public prosecutor Raffaele Cammarano said at a press conference in Palermo: "It was a sudden, abrupt event."

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Business Insider

Mike Lynch's yacht was state-of-the-art and shouldn't have sunk so easily, search-and-rescue expert says

  • The tech tycoon Mike Lynch died in a yacht sinking near Palermo, Italy.
  • An investigation is underway, with experts questioning how the state-of-the-art yacht sank.
  • One expert said the $40 million yacht should have been "unsinkable."

A search-and-rescue expert said the superyacht disaster that killed Mike Lynch was difficult to comprehend — because the vessel never should have sunk.

Lynch, a British tech tycoon, was celebrating his fraud acquittal with friends and family when the 183-foot ship sank during stormy weather near Palermo, Italy.

Of the 22 people on board, six people, including Lynch, have been confirmed dead.

Fifteen people, including Lynch's wife, were rescued. Lynch's 18-year-old daughter remained unaccounted for as of Thursday afternoon local time.

An investigation into the cause of the tragedy is underway.

'Unsinkable'

Matthew Schanck is a maritime search-and-rescue consultant with 14 years of experience. He told Business Insider that his reaction to the sinking was "disbelief."

When the news of the sinking broke, Schanck said he envisioned a far smaller ship — "some sort of 40-foot yacht with a couple on board."

"That wouldn't have been as unusual or extraordinary," he said.

"It was really shocking," he added. "But what's more shocking is the fact that it's a modern, state-of-the-art superyacht, which would have been commercially certified and regulated by the Maritime Coastguard Agency."

Schanck previously told BI there was no indication that the ship breached "any international maritime construction or safety standards."

The superyacht was worth $40 million, The New York Times reported .

Giovanni Costantino is the CEO of the Italian Sea Group, which built the yacht. Speaking with Sky News, Costantino said the sinking sounded "like an unbelievable story, both technically and as a fact."

"Sailing ships, it is well known, are the safest in the most absolute sense," he said. They tend, he said, to be "unsinkable."

Though the cause of the sinking has not been established, authorities confirmed a strong storm had been in the area.

Witnesses told BBC News they saw a waterspout — an uncommon tornadolike column of wind and water — before the ship went down.

"This tends to have been the accepted theory, that the vessel was hit by a waterspout and the crew didn't see it coming because it was nighttime and dark," Schanck said.

He said that while this scenario made sense, it's not clear how witnesses would have noticed a waterspout if the crew didn't.

Speaking with the Times, Costantino said the ship had the second-tallest aluminum mast in the world, which made it safe and secure.

However, he said that if any of the doors had been open during the storm, it could have taken on water more easily.

Correction: August 22, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the surname of the search-and-rescue consultant. It's Schanck, not Schank.

If you enjoyed this story, be sure to follow Business Insider on Microsoft Start.

Mike Lynch's yacht was state-of-the-art and shouldn't have sunk so easily, search-and-rescue expert says

The 5 tragic minutes that sank a superyacht

PORTICELLO, Italy — Survivors of a storm that sank a superyacht off Sicily recounted their ordeal to one of the doctors who rushed to their aid, with some saying it took mere minutes for the 180-foot ship to go down. 

Dr. Fabio Genco, head of the Palermo Emergency Medical Services, told NBC News on the phone Thursday that he arrived in the seaside village of Porticello before dawn Monday, about an hour after the $40 million Bayesian sank in the violent and sudden storm.   

Of the 22 people onboard, 15 survived despite storm conditions and darkness, climbing onto a lifeboat before being rescued by a nearby sailboat. The crew members have made no public statements so far, though some have been interviewed by investigators.

“They told me that it was all dark, that the yacht hoisted itself up and then went down,” Genco said, recounting what the survivors told him. “All the objects were falling on them. That’s why I immediately made sure, by asking them questions, if they had any internal injuries,” he said. 

It appears they had just minutes to abandon the sinking ship, Genco said. 

Divers Retrieve Bodies From Tech Tycoon Mike Lynch Yacht Sunk Off Sicily

“They told me that suddenly they found themselves catapulted into the water without even understanding how they had got there,” he said, “And that the whole thing seems to have lasted from 3 to 5 minutes.”

Giovanni Costantino, CEO of The Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi, the Bayesian's shipbuilder, told Sky News that there were no flaws with the design or construction of the yacht. He said their structure and keel made boats like that “unsinkable bodies.”

In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, he disavowed responsibility, blaming instead the actions of the crew. “Mistakes were made,” he said. 

Genco said one of his colleagues who arrived at the scene before him initially thought that only three people survived, but the coast guard reported there were other survivors and more emergency services were called in. 

When Genco arrived, he found scenes of panic and despair. 

“Unfortunately, we are used to such panic scenes because we are used to the shipwrecks that happen on Lampedusa ,” Genco said, referring to the island southwest of Sicily, where the wreckage of boats carrying migrants on the sea journey from North Africa to Italy are often found . 

Six of the passengers were declared missing Monday, and by Thursday, the bodies of five had been recovered from the wreck , some 160 feet underwater.

Among those who survived is Angela Bacares, wife of the British tech mogul Mike Lynch , whose body was recovered Thursday. 

Divers searching for six missing people following the sinking of a superyacht off Sicily in a storm have found fifth bodies.

Another survivor has been identified as Charlotte Emsley, 35. She told the Italian news agency ANSA that she had momentarily lost hold of her year-old daughter, Sofia, in the water but managed to retrieve her and hold her over the waves until a lifeboat inflated and they were pulled into safety.

Dr. Domenico Cipolla at the Di Cristina Children’s Hospital in Palermo is also part of a team of medical professionals treating the shipwreck survivors. He told the BBC on Wednesday that Emsley and her daughter, as well as the father of the child, who Cipolla said also survived, are continuing to receive psychological help. 

“Psychological support was constant and is constant even today, because basically it is the wounds of the soul that are the most in need of healing in these cases,” Cipolla said.

Genco also told NBC News that he was especially concerned about the child. “She did not understand anything. She was soaking wet and cold,” he said. 

Karsten Borner, the Dutch captain of the Sir Robert Baden Powell, a yacht that was anchored near the Bayesian, said by phone Wednesday that he saw a thunderstorm come in at around 4 a.m. local time (10 p.m. ET) Monday, followed by what looked like a waterspout, a type of tornado that forms over water. 

The International Centre for Waterspout Research noted on X that there was a “waterspout outbreak” off Italy on Monday, the day the Bayesian sank. 

All the men missing after a luxury yacht sank off Sicily -- who included UK tech tycoon Mike Lynch -- have been found, a coastguard official told.

“I turned on the engine and made maneuvers so that we wouldn’t collide with the Bayesian, which was anchored about 100 meters from us,” Borner said. “Then all of a sudden it disappeared. Then the wind calmed down, we looked around and saw a red flare.”

Borner said he got into his boat’s tender and saw a life raft with 15 people on it. Members of the crew were administering first aid. 

“I don’t know why it sank so quickly, but it may have something to do with the mast which was incredibly long,” he said. Questions have been raised about whether the mast was to blame for the accident as tall masts, even with the sails down, have more surface area exposed to the wind, which can contribute to tipping a vessel in a storm.

The CCTV footage that emerged Tuesday showed the yacht’s 250-foot mast, believed to be one of the tallest aluminum sailing masts in the world, lashed by the storm as it appears to tilt to one side before disappearing.

Claudia Rizzo is an Italy based journalist.

Claudio Lavanga is Rome-based foreign correspondent for NBC News.

unsinkable yacht

Yuliya Talmazan is a reporter for NBC News Digital, based in London.

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